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Compare normalised conversion rates in test and control groups to estimate outcomes that would not have happened without the intervention.
Last updated 6 August 2026
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Incremental conversions = Test conversions − (Control conversion rate × Test audience)Randomise comparable test and control populations before exposure.
Keep tracking and observation windows identical.
Calculate statistical confidence before material budget decisions.
650 conversions from 50,000 test users versus 500 from an equal control group produces 150 estimated incremental conversions and 30% relative lift.
Move from platform attribution to defensible incrementality decisions.